If planning starts in January, you’re already three months behind the brands that got ahead of it.
This wave is as predictable as peak selling itself and deserves the same seriousness.
A January Problem You Solve In October
Processing capacity needs to be arranged alongside the holiday sales plan, and restocking speed determines whether you recapture the resale window. Markdown decisions on returned inventory are easier made in advance, and the same rigor applied to the front end of Q4 has to apply to the back end.
Processing Capacity
January return volume can dwarf your normal daily processing capacity if you haven’t planned for it. Confirm staffing levels needed for a multiple of typical daily volume, physical space allocated for the surge, and whether temp staff need training before January hits. Set a backlog threshold that triggers an escalation plan.
Restocking Speed
A returned item that sits unprocessed means you’ve refunded the customer and lost the chance to resell it. Plan for a target turnaround time from return receipt to re-sellable inventory, a quality inspection process that doesn’t create a bottleneck, and prioritization of high velocity SKUs. Speed here directly determines how much value you recover.
Markdown Decisions, Decide Now Not Box By Box
Making this decision in advance protects margin on inventory you’re going to have to move anyway. Decide which categories are likely candidates for markdown after return, the markdown cadence and depth for post-holiday stock, and who has authority to approve markdowns without case-by-case delay. A pre-planned policy moves faster and protects more margin than a reactive one.
Plan It Concurrently With The Sale
The holiday sales plan gets careful attention. The returns plan deserves the same. Returns capacity planning should happen alongside the holiday sales plan, staffing budgets should account for both peak outbound and peak returns, and systems should be stress tested for both volume surges, not just one.
The Difference Is Preparation
Founders who barely notice the January wave planned for it. Calm founders built the returns plan in October, modeled the volume based on the actual holiday sales plan, and assigned clear ownership for capacity, restocking, and markdown decisions.
The January returns wave is the most predictable event on the apparel calendar, and it still catches brands off guard every year.
The founders who barely notice it built the plan back in the fall, alongside the holiday sales plan itself, not as a scramble once the boxes started arriving.
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